Air Passenger Market Analysis – January 2015

  • Global air travel was up 4.6% in January compared to a year ago, weaker than the 5.9% expansion in 2014;
  • There was a contraction in volumes of 0.2% in January compared to December, but this is within normally volatility in RPKs;
  • International RPKs were up 5.4% in January year-on-year, but the growth rate is below its long-run average (6.3%);
  • Moreover, the level of traffic has broadly tracked sideways since August (except for a spike in volumes in December);
  • Some airlines continue to see strong growth – Middle East and Latin America were up 11.4% and 5.6%;
  • During the later months of 2014, domestic markets were the main driver of industry growth;
  • In January, domestic travel was a drag on the global result, partly due to the timing of the Lunar New Year;
  • The slower start to 2015 does not necessarily imply the beginning of weakness in the otherwise robust growth trend;
  • It is important to note, however, that concerns have been rising about the health of the global economy;
  • Business confidence has been weakening since mid-2014, which could continue to limit international air travel volumes.

Full report

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